So I was rolling hard on the “Rising Sun” diamond gacha for Sun God Amaterasu and I decided to go back and tally up the rolls to get a general sense of what the default rates are (since apparently Ateam doesn’t publish them publicly and Darrick wouldn’t tell me them). Here are the results:

Background

• Rolled 40 x 7-rolls (280 total) on the “Rising Sun” gacha, which featured hero “Sun God Amaterasu” and weapon “Yata no Kagami X (Sp.)” rate up
• I stopped rolling after getting Amaterasu, so this data is biased in that it is NOT good sample data for determining what the RATE UP rates are but rather what the BASE rates are
• The raw data in Excel format can be found here if you want to perform your own more in-depth data analysis

Data

#	3* hero	#	2* hero	#	3* equip	#	2* equip	#	3* accs	#	2* accs
5	Freya	13	Baldr	3	Seid Rod X (Sp.)	9	Kris	1	Brisingamen X (Sp.)	4	Elven Cufflet
4	Ranco	13	Hodr	3	Stillwater Greatsword	8	Featherweight Rapier	1	Sniper’s Ring	3	Fang Necklace
4	Mani	11	Mele	2	Lunar Cane	7	Dragonscry	1	Purity Ring	3	Sorcerous Ring
4	Loki	11	Shiena	2	Raven Garb	7	Gladius	1	Kitty Collar X (Sp.)
3	Vali	8	Idun	2	Prima Blaster X (Sp.)	7	Shade Edge
2	Gullveig	7	Welver	2	Kuro-Ichimonji X (Sp.)	7	Saint’s Robe
2	Thor	6	Luflit	2	Grimoire of Accusation	6	Rose Rapier
2	Niji	4	Sonia	1	Crystal Armor	6	Mythril Hatchet
2	Hel	3	Sakura	1	Deforester	6	Burning Staff
1	Bear	3	Heimdall	1	Glacial Cloak	5	Earthen Hammer
1	Lipka			1	Key to Asgard	5	Mythril Mail
1	Luca			1	Dusk	4	Mossy Armor
1	Liciela			1	Stun Knife	4	Icicle Bow
1	Momiji			1	Lotus Flower	4	Knight’s Shield
1	Liesa			1	Hati the Doll X (Sp.)	4	Forest Bow
1	Michelle			1	Flowing Harp X (Sp.)	4	Berserker Helm
1	Nautica			1	Twilight Circlet	4	Enchanted Shield
1	Canon			1	Faemsir	4	Magic Broom
1	Arte			1	Elysian Dress X (Sp.)	4	Fraxinus Staff
1	Amaterasu			1	Yata no Kagami X (Sp.)	3	Rifleman’s Vest
					3	Grail Wand
					3	Curved Blade
					2	Druid’s Cloak
					2	Autumn Rain
					1	Swarthy Goggles

Analysis

Per category

%	#	Type
13.93%	39	3-star Hero
28.21%	79	2-star Hero
10.36%	29	3-star Equipment
42.50%	119	2-star Equipment
1.43%	4	3-star Accessory
3.57%	10	2-star Accessory
100.00%	280	TOTAL

Per rarity

%	#	Type
25.71%	72	3-stars
74.29%	208	2-stars
100.00%	280	TOTAL

Per type

%	#	Type
42.14%	118	Hero
52.86%	148	Equipment
5.00%	14	Accessory
100.00%	280	TOTAL

Conclusions

Obviously the data set is far too limited to make many specific conclusions, but the following general conclusions can be made

• Rate ups are a lie Rate ups are not very noticeable in the small scale, i.e. if you roll 100 times, don’t expect to get something like 10 rate ups if you normally would only get 1 (instead, expect to at best get 2)
• The 3-star vs 2-star rate is roughly 25% vs 75%
• The hero vs gear rate is roughly 40% vs 60%
• Accessories are very rare, but this is more a side effect of the accessory pool itself being small
• Within each category, there MIGHT be different rates (e.g. Baldr seemed a lot more common than Heimdall) but I would likely just attribute to the more perceivable effect of RNG on small sample sizes

Predicted Rolls

Based on the above data, here would be your predicted rolls breakdown if you were to roll 100 times on a diamond gacha similar to the “Rising Sun” one. Keep in mind that this works off the assumption that all special diamond gachas share the same base rates (which I think is a reasonable assumption). I do not have any data for special gachas such as gear or costume gachas, nor whether or not Star Party/Moon Party/etc. gachas use the same base rates.

#	Type
10	3-star Hero
15	3-star Gear
30	2-star Hero
45	2-star Gear

Hope this data was helpful and good luck with your rolls!

~Keripo

Originally posted on Reddit