[F/GO] Halloween Event Drop Rates

**Update**: Apparently there has been even more quest updates since I collected my data and Guerilla quests are no longer repeatable as well as had their drop rates changed. They are still the best for Pumpkin farming though.

I decided to go over my past [Twitch stream broadcasts](http://www.twitch.tv/keripo) and compile together drop results to build a rough drop rate table to share with the community. I’m actually done farming right now so I probably won’t continue gathering more data, but I hope this info helps those who are still farming.

Keep in mind that the sample sizes are pretty small, so the data is not very PRECISE. Unlike ascension mat (which have extremely low drop rates in the single digit percent ranges), the event items have a very high drop rate, so even this low sample size data is pretty ACCURATE. This means that if you do the same number of runs, you will get roughly similar results, but not exactly the same.

Skip to the Conclusion section if you don’t care about numbers and just want to know what to farm.

**== Notes ==**

* The view-only spreadsheet with the raw data can be found [here](http://1drv.ms/1LMPFN7)
* If you wish to contribute farming data, a publicly editable version of the spreadsheet can be found [here](http://1drv.ms/1ONuOPT)
* All collected data have CE bonuses removed, i.e. these are the BASE drop rates
* Ascension mat drops are not included since their drop rates are too small relative to the sample sizes
* Drop count = average number of batches of the item expected to drop in one run
* Per drop = average number of the item in each batch
* Total = average total number of item expected to drop in one run (without CE bonuses)
* Total cupcakes = total number of cupcakes you would get if you converted all drops to cupcakes

**== 10 AP ==**

Sample size: 10

Item Drop count Per Drop Total Per AP
Cupcake 2.56 3.39 8.67 0.87
Candle 0.22 3.00 0.67 0.07
Bat 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pumpkin 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

AP cost: 10
Total cupcakes: 10.00
Cupcake/AP ratio: 1.00

**== 20 AP ==**

Sample size: 25

Item Drop count Per Drop Total Per AP
Cupcake 1.88 2.87 5.38 0.27
Candle 1.75 5.86 10.25 0.04
Bat 0.25 3.00 0.75 0.04
Pumpkin 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

AP cost: 20
Total cupcakes: 29.63
Cupcake/AP ratio: 1.48

**== 30 AP ==**

Sample size: 20

Item Drop count Per Drop Total Per AP
Cupcake 0.42 2.00 0.84 0.03
Candle 1.79 4.00 7.16 0.24
Bat 1.32 4.12 5.42 0.18
Pumpkin 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

AP cost: 30
Total cupcakes: 42.26
Cupcake/AP ratio: 1.41

**== 40 AP ==**

Sample size: 60

Item Drop count Per Drop Total Per AP
Cupcake 0.49 5.17 2.54 0.06
Candle 2.44 4.00 9.76 0.24
Bat 1.14 6.16 7.00 0.18
Pumpkin 0.22 3.00 0.66 0.02

AP cost: 40
Total cupcakes: 90.12
Cupcake/AP ratio: 2.25

**== Guerrilla ==**

Note: This drop rate data is now outdated as of more recent patches and the Guerrilla quests are now no longer repeatable.

Sample size: 34

Item Drop count Per Drop Total Per AP
Cupcake 1.27 2.90 3.70 0.12
Candle 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Bat 0.88 4.07 3.58 0.12
Pumpkin 0.21 3.00 0.64 0.02

AP cost: 30
Total cupcakes: 53.39
Cupcake/AP ratio: 1.78

**== Overall ==**

Here’s the expected total drops from 1200 AP worth of runs without any CE bonuses:

Total AP: 1200, without CEs

Item 10 AP 20 AP 30 AP 40 AP Guerilla
Cupcake 1040 323 34 76 148
Candle 80 615 286 293 0
Bat 0 45 216 210 143
Pumpkin 0 0 0 20 25
Total cupcakes: 1200 1778 1690 2704 2136

Here’s the expected total drops from 1200 AP worth of runs with CE bonuses

Total AP: 1200, with CEs

Item 10 AP 20 AP 30 AP 40 AP Guerilla
CE +9 cupcake +6 candle +6 bat +1 pumpkin +1 pumpkin
Cupcake 3800 323 34 76 148
Candle 80 1245 286 293 0
Bat 0 45 532 210 143
Pumpkin 0 0 0 26 34
Total cupcakes: 3960 3038 3270 3003 2586

Here’s an alternate table using different CEs

Total AP: 1200, with alternate CEs

Item 10 AP 20 AP 30 AP 40 AP Guerilla
CE +9 cupcake +9 cupcakes +6 candle +6 bat +6 bat
Cupcake 3800 1335 34 76 148
Candle 80 615 715 293 0
Bat 0 45 216 414 354
Pumpkin 0 0 0 20 25
Total cupcakes: 3960 2790 2548 3724 3191

Here are the CE bonuses that the above chart assumes:

* +9 Cupcake from Trick or Treat x 3
* +6 Candle from Halloween Princess x3
* +6 Bat from Maid in Halloween x3
* +1 Pumpkin from Halloween Petit Devil x1

**== Conclusion ==**

* If you want to farm **Pumpkins**, farm the **Guerilla** quest, then **40 AP** when it’s not available
* If you want to farm **Bats**, farm the **30 AP** quest
* If you want to farm **Candles**, farm the **20 AP** quest
* If you want to farm **Cupcakes**, farm the **10 AP** quest

If you are planning to farm all the items, the recommended farming order is to just repeatedly do the 40 AP quest (or Guerillas when available) until you are done with Pumpkins, then move down from there. Cupcakes should be the last thing you farm for.

~Keripo