So I was rolling hard on the “Rising Sun” diamond gacha for Sun God Amaterasu and I decided to go back and tally up the rolls to get a general sense of what the default rates are (since apparently Ateam doesn’t publish them publicly and Darrick wouldn’t tell me them). Here are the results:
Background
- Rolled 40 x 7-rolls (280 total) on the “Rising Sun” gacha, which featured hero “Sun God Amaterasu” and weapon “Yata no Kagami X (Sp.)” rate up
- I stopped rolling after getting Amaterasu, so this data is biased in that it is NOT good sample data for determining what the RATE UP rates are but rather what the BASE rates are
- The raw data in Excel format can be found here if you want to perform your own more in-depth data analysis
Data
| # | 3* hero | # | 2* hero | # | 3* equip | # | 2* equip | # | 3* accs | # | 2* accs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Freya | 13 | Baldr | 3 | Seid Rod X (Sp.) | 9 | Kris | 1 | Brisingamen X (Sp.) | 4 | Elven Cufflet |
| 4 | Ranco | 13 | Hodr | 3 | Stillwater Greatsword | 8 | Featherweight Rapier | 1 | Sniper’s Ring | 3 | Fang Necklace |
| 4 | Mani | 11 | Mele | 2 | Lunar Cane | 7 | Dragonscry | 1 | Purity Ring | 3 | Sorcerous Ring |
| 4 | Loki | 11 | Shiena | 2 | Raven Garb | 7 | Gladius | 1 | Kitty Collar X (Sp.) | ||
| 3 | Vali | 8 | Idun | 2 | Prima Blaster X (Sp.) | 7 | Shade Edge | ||||
| 2 | Gullveig | 7 | Welver | 2 | Kuro-Ichimonji X (Sp.) | 7 | Saint’s Robe | ||||
| 2 | Thor | 6 | Luflit | 2 | Grimoire of Accusation | 6 | Rose Rapier | ||||
| 2 | Niji | 4 | Sonia | 1 | Crystal Armor | 6 | Mythril Hatchet | ||||
| 2 | Hel | 3 | Sakura | 1 | Deforester | 6 | Burning Staff | ||||
| 1 | Bear | 3 | Heimdall | 1 | Glacial Cloak | 5 | Earthen Hammer | ||||
| 1 | Lipka | 1 | Key to Asgard | 5 | Mythril Mail | ||||||
| 1 | Luca | 1 | Dusk | 4 | Mossy Armor | ||||||
| 1 | Liciela | 1 | Stun Knife | 4 | Icicle Bow | ||||||
| 1 | Momiji | 1 | Lotus Flower | 4 | Knight’s Shield | ||||||
| 1 | Liesa | 1 | Hati the Doll X (Sp.) | 4 | Forest Bow | ||||||
| 1 | Michelle | 1 | Flowing Harp X (Sp.) | 4 | Berserker Helm | ||||||
| 1 | Nautica | 1 | Twilight Circlet | 4 | Enchanted Shield | ||||||
| 1 | Canon | 1 | Faemsir | 4 | Magic Broom | ||||||
| 1 | Arte | 1 | Elysian Dress X (Sp.) | 4 | Fraxinus Staff | ||||||
| 1 | Amaterasu | 1 | Yata no Kagami X (Sp.) | 3 | Rifleman’s Vest | ||||||
| 3 | Grail Wand | ||||||||||
| 3 | Curved Blade | ||||||||||
| 2 | Druid’s Cloak | ||||||||||
| 2 | Autumn Rain | ||||||||||
| 1 | Swarthy Goggles |
Analysis
Per category
| % | # | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 13.93% | 39 | 3-star Hero |
| 28.21% | 79 | 2-star Hero |
| 10.36% | 29 | 3-star Equipment |
| 42.50% | 119 | 2-star Equipment |
| 1.43% | 4 | 3-star Accessory |
| 3.57% | 10 | 2-star Accessory |
| 100.00% | 280 | TOTAL |
Per rarity
| % | # | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 25.71% | 72 | 3-stars |
| 74.29% | 208 | 2-stars |
| 100.00% | 280 | TOTAL |
Per type
| % | # | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 42.14% | 118 | Hero |
| 52.86% | 148 | Equipment |
| 5.00% | 14 | Accessory |
| 100.00% | 280 | TOTAL |
Conclusions
Obviously the data set is far too limited to make many specific conclusions, but the following general conclusions can be made
Rate ups are a lieRate ups are not very noticeable in the small scale, i.e. if you roll 100 times, don’t expect to get something like 10 rate ups if you normally would only get 1 (instead, expect to at best get 2)- The 3-star vs 2-star rate is roughly 25% vs 75%
- The hero vs gear rate is roughly 40% vs 60%
- Accessories are very rare, but this is more a side effect of the accessory pool itself being small
- Within each category, there MIGHT be different rates (e.g. Baldr seemed a lot more common than Heimdall) but I would likely just attribute to the more perceivable effect of RNG on small sample sizes
Predicted Rolls
Based on the above data, here would be your predicted rolls breakdown if you were to roll 100 times on a diamond gacha similar to the “Rising Sun” one. Keep in mind that this works off the assumption that all special diamond gachas share the same base rates (which I think is a reasonable assumption). I do not have any data for special gachas such as gear or costume gachas, nor whether or not Star Party/Moon Party/etc. gachas use the same base rates.
| # | Type |
|---|---|
| 10 | 3-star Hero |
| 15 | 3-star Gear |
| 30 | 2-star Hero |
| 45 | 2-star Gear |
Hope this data was helpful and good luck with your rolls!
~Keripo
Originally posted on Reddit
