[F/GO] Halloween Event Drop Rates (aka the “Which quest should I farm?” reference charts)

Update: Apparently there has been even more quest updates since I collected my data and Guerilla quests are no longer repeatable as well as had their drop rates changed. They are still the best for Pumpkin farming though.

I decided to go over my past Twitch stream broadcasts and compile together drop results to build a rough drop rate table to share with the community. I’m actually done farming right now so I probably won’t continue gathering more data, but I hope this info helps those who are still farming.

Keep in mind that the sample sizes are pretty small, so the data is not very PRECISE. Unlike ascension mat (which have extremely low drop rates in the single digit percent ranges), the event items have a very high drop rate, so even this low sample size data is pretty ACCURATE. This means that if you do the same number of runs, you will get roughly similar results, but not exactly the same.

Skip to the Conclusion section if you don’t care about numbers and just want to know what to farm.

== Notes ==

• The view-only spreadsheet with the raw data can be found here
• If you wish to contribute farming data, a publicly editable version of the spreadsheet can be found here
• All collected data have CE bonuses removed, i.e. these are the BASE drop rates
• Ascension mat drops are not included since their drop rates are too small relative to the sample sizes
• Drop count = average number of batches of the item expected to drop in one run
• Per drop = average number of the item in each batch
• Total = average total number of item expected to drop in one run (without CE bonuses)
• Total cupcakes = total number of cupcakes you would get if you converted all drops to cupcakes

== 10 AP ==

Sample size: 10
Item       Drop count    Per Drop    Total    Per AP
Cupcake    2.56          3.39        8.67     0.87
Candle     0.22          3.00        0.67     0.07
Bat        0.00          0.00        0.00     0.00
Pumpkin    0.00          0.00        0.00     0.00
AP cost:             10
Total cupcakes:   10.00
Cupcake/AP ratio:  1.00

== 20 AP ==

Sample size: 25
Item       Drop count    Per Drop    Total    Per AP
Cupcake    1.88          2.87        5.38     0.27
Candle     1.75          5.86       10.25     0.04
Bat        0.25          3.00        0.75     0.04
Pumpkin    0.00          0.00        0.00     0.00
AP cost:             20
Total cupcakes:   29.63
Cupcake/AP ratio:  1.48

== 30 AP ==

Sample size: 20
Item       Drop count    Per Drop    Total    Per AP
Cupcake    0.42          2.00        0.84     0.03
Candle     1.79          4.00        7.16     0.24
Bat        1.32          4.12        5.42     0.18
Pumpkin    0.00          0.00        0.00     0.00
AP cost:             30
Total cupcakes:   42.26
Cupcake/AP ratio:  1.41

== 40 AP ==

Sample size: 60
Item       Drop count    Per Drop    Total    Per AP
Cupcake    0.49          5.17        2.54     0.06
Candle     2.44          4.00        9.76     0.24
Bat        1.14          6.16        7.00     0.18
Pumpkin    0.22          3.00        0.66     0.02
AP cost:             40
Total cupcakes:   90.12
Cupcake/AP ratio:  2.25

== Guerrilla ==

Note: This drop rate data is now outdated as of more recent patches and the Guerrilla quests are now no longer repeatable.

Sample size: 34
Item       Drop count    Per Drop    Total    Per AP
Cupcake    1.27          2.90        3.70     0.12
Candle     0.00          0.00        0.00     0.00
Bat        0.88          4.07        3.58     0.12
Pumpkin    0.21          3.00        0.64     0.02
AP cost:             30
Total cupcakes:   53.39
Cupcake/AP ratio:  1.78

== Overall ==

Here’s the expected total drops from 1200 AP worth of runs without any CE bonuses:

Total AP: 1200, without CEs
Item            10 AP       20 AP      30 AP     40 AP   Guerilla
Cupcake          1040         323         34        76        148
Candle             80         615        286       293          0
Bat                 0          45        216       210        143
Pumpkin             0           0          0        20         25
Total cupcakes:  1200        1778       1690      2704       2136

Here’s the expected total drops from 1200 AP worth of runs with CE bonuses

Total AP: 1200, with CEs
Item           10 AP        20 AP     30 AP      40 AP   Guerilla
CE         +9 cupcake   +6 candle    +6 bat +1 pumpkin +1 pumpkin
Cupcake          3800         323        34         76        148
Candle             80        1245       286        293          0
Bat                 0          45       532        210        143
Pumpkin             0           0         0         26         34
Total cupcakes:  3960        3038      3270       3003       2586

Here’s an alternate table using different CEs

Total AP: 1200, with alternate CEs
Item            10 AP       20 AP     30 AP      40 AP   Guerilla
CE         +9 cupcake +9 cupcakes +6 candle     +6 bat     +6 bat
Cupcake          3800        1335        34         76        148
Candle             80         615       715        293          0
Bat                 0          45       216        414        354
Pumpkin             0           0         0         20         25
Total cupcakes:  3960        2790      2548       3724       3191

Here are the CE bonuses that the above chart assumes:

• +9 Cupcake from Trick or Treat x 3
• +6 Candle from Halloween Princess x3
• +6 Bat from Maid in Halloween x3
• +1 Pumpkin from Halloween Petit Devil x1

== Conclusion ==

• If you want to farm Pumpkins, farm the Guerilla quest, then 40 AP when it’s not available
• If you want to farm Bats, farm the 30 AP quest
• If you want to farm Candles, farm the 20 AP quest
• If you want to farm Cupcakes, farm the 10 AP quest

If you are planning to farm all the items, the recommended farming order is to just repeatedly do the 40 AP quest (or Guerillas when available) until you are done with Pumpkins, then move down from there. Cupcakes should be the last thing you farm for.

~Keripo

Originally posted on Reddit